Wednesday, January 26, 2011

One Interpretation of the WEF's Call for Another $100 Trillion of Debt in 10 Years

"The jig is up."

What's the jig?  Debt money.

Why is it up?  Because the world economy can no longer support perpetual exponential debt growth.  Nor can it support continued perpetual exponential corporate earnings growth.

Why is the WEF calling for something that can't be accomplished?  There are many reasons.  First and foremost, to let people who understand the real game the time to shift their wealth from paper assets to real assets.  Second, to let smart guys like Steve Keen and smartish ideologues like Mish pontificate about how stupid the goal is.  Pontification about alleged stupidity provides a wonderful distraction.  It is perhaps humanity's greatest sport: railing on other people for being stupid and "not getting it."  Third, there are true believers out there who just may be able to make the seemingly impossible possible.  Seriously.  The ability to extend a Ponzi scheme depends entirely upon challenging imaginative sociopaths to come up with a way to overcome impossible odds.  That's how we got all this "financial innovation."

The good news is that the WEF's time horizon implies that there is time to transfer wealth from fictitious assets to real assets.  Most people won't start worrying about what happens ten years from now until five years from now: corporate "long range" strategic planning never looks more than five years out, so even the TBTF corporate banks won't start worrying about cleaving to the WEF's suggested 10-year mean until 2016, and they'll convince themselves that they can "right the ship" for another two years.  This means the real Galtian panic will start around 2018.

Here's what this means.  If you are in debt now (negative net worth), get out within five years so you have at least two years to build up enough wealth to provide the opportunity to choose what you do for a living (avoid wage slavery).  If you have no debt but no savings ,start saving and build up that wealth.  If you have wealth (positive networth), transition that wealth into real assets when the opportunity arises.  As much as I hate precious metals, what I think doesn't matter.  Expect the new, non-debt based currency to be based on gold and silver.  We're going to see a steady ratcheting action on the price of these precious metals, so look for dips to average in on.

FYI -- these are my own opinions.  Apply them at your own risk.  I'm not an investment advisor.  I just see a global deflationary environment marked by seemingly counter-intuitive consumer staple price inflation driven by bouts of commodity speculation.  There is a method to this madness, though: staple price infaltion will anger the masses and condition them to accepting change they otherwise would be too rational to accept.  The only way that elites can expect to ride this kind of tiger is by guiding the masses to adopt something as money that is fixed, e.g., the amount of gold and silver in the world.

The neoliberals are setting us up for the second punch.  The first was Chicago School.  The Second will be Austrian School.

Count on it.