Tuesday, April 12, 2011

The Automatic Earth Gets It

In a post entitled "Bill Gross, Master of Monetary Psy-Ops," the Automatic Earth lays it out for all to see:

The systemic fear generated from crumbling markets worldwide will first serve to attract scared capital into the Treasury market, as it still remains the only place to go for people with sums of money that won't fit under any mattress. Besides, the only real difference between the U.S. dollar and short-term Treasury bills or notes is that the latter could potentially give you a fixed income over their duration. The fear will then serve to further justify Treasury asset purchase operations by the Fed, the ongoing sociopolitical destruction in the Middle East be damned. So how does Pimco and Bill Gross fit into all of these deceptive monetary tactics? Well, the fact that TRF currently holds a record 38% of its assets in dollar-denominated cash is a telling one. [5].

Every investor knows that the best and quickest way to make money is to own something that virtually no one else does, right before it gets hot and takes off towards the moon and the stars. An unexpected end to QE operations will send the dollar soaring, and as mentioned before, all asset markets plunging except for the U.S. Treasury market. Bill Gross may have dumped all of his Treasury exposure for now, but has any other major financial institution or money manager followed his suit? Has the Fed announced any plans to sell its Treasury holdings back into the primary or secondary markets?

Of course not. These institutions are not worried about rates surging outside of their control anytime soon, and will be glad to make a few extra bucks from higher interest payments (paid by taxpayers) before the "rush to safety" really gets underway. I suspect that, by that time, there would have been a significant reversal in the Treasury holdings of TRF and the superficial justifications for the investment decisions of the omniscient Bill Gross. Perhaps he will continue to have minimal exposure to U.S. Treasuries throughout the year, as a partial hedge to his fund's enormous cash holdings, but that certainly should not be taken as an absolute bet against the Treasury market.
We're nowhere near the endgame.  There is no checkmate in sight.  This is managed deflation, with the Fed and its minions acting out a play to manipulate the emotions that the "investing" public believes to be market signals.  The rules of investing were written by the financial elites to fleece everyone else. 

And the fleecing won't stop until everybody stops playing the game.